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Weekly Memorandum 4/26/2021

Stocks were down slightly last week, but had recovered most of their losses by the end of the week. Value has started to outperform growth again, which is likely weighing down on the Nasdaq, as it hasn't made a new all-time high since February.

There were a couple major stories last week: First, Bitcoin dropped significantly, and even fell slightly below 50,000. It is recovering nicely to start the week, however. This may have been yet another important higher-low. The second big story was grain markets, which exploded higher. Grains have likely crossed the point-of-no-return now, and have essentially confirmed the start of a long-term bull market. Higher food prices are on the horizon.

T-Notes were up slightly, but declined into the end of the week. Crude Oil was slightly lower, but the dollar was down firmly. This suggests that commodities should continue to see tailwinds, and that interest rates should continue to rise. It's also indicative of capital outflows from the United States. We explain the causes and repercussions of this in the latest Mercator Letter, which was published yesterday.

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