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Weekly Memorandum 4/19/2021

Stocks started the week off on a flat note after posting fresh all-time highs in the case of the Dow and S&P. The Nasdaq is very close to doing so too. After this impressive rally the last couple weeks, we are eyeing the probability of a multi-week consolidation, or minor corrective rally to digest these gains.

T-Notes finished slightly higher last week, but are still very much in a downtrend. Crude Oil caught a nice bid, but the U.S. Dollar sunk again. Cryptocurrencies took it on the chin over the week, but remain very much in an uptrend. The key here is to see another higher-low form, which is likely to happen. Precious metals had a nice rally last week too, and the big question surrounding this asset class is whether their ~3 year long correlation to bonds is about to break. It would likely be bullish for metals if it did.

Agricultural commodities saw nice gains last week too, with the exception of livestock. Note how grains have led the agricultural rally higher. It takes time for higher feed costs to translate into higher livestock prices. Lean hogs are the leader in the livestock space over live cattle and feeder cattle.

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