Weekly Memorandum 4/18/2022
Stocks ended last week on a defensive note as the low-liquidity environment exacerbates volatility. Tech continues to lag and lead the market lower, which is a stark contrast from the equity bull's regime of the past decade. The inflation trade is still performing well, which remains the center of our focus.
A major culprit behind technology's underperformance is rising rates. We are approaching levels in the rate market whereby a strong case could be made that the secular bear trend is over. The ramifications to this would be tremendous, and it was explored in more detail in the latest Mercator Letter, which was published this past weekend.
The U.S. Dollar remains strong contrary to the perma-bears' narrative. Crypto is still on the defensive, but Crude Oil and precious metals look strong again. Grain markets are starting to turn back higher as well.