Weekly Memorandum 3/21/2022
Stocks finished last week in a very bullish manner and engulfed 4 weeks' worth of price action. This comes just as fear surrounding the state of the economy was becoming consensus. As we like to say, sentiment follows price, not the other way around. Chances are, a rally would catch many market participants off-guard. This was outlined in much greater detail in March's Mercator Letter, which was published yesterday.
Bonds continued to consolidate near their lows, as inflation pressures remain at multi-decade highs. The U.S. Dollar is consolidating near its high too, but if we see a relief rally in bonds and a corrective decline in the dollar, it would likely act as a tailwind for equities, especially tech.
Gold and silver experienced corrective declines and are trying to hammer out a higher-low. Same with Crude Oil, which remans in a strong bull trend. Cryptocurrencies experienced a decent rally last week, but still face technical resistance that is impacting its trend.