Weekly Memorandum 3/1/2021
Stocks are up slightly off their lows to start the new week. They closed out at the lows last week, which normally isn't bullish behavior. Even so, any further declines should be corrective in nature instead of an actual reversal in trend. This is also serving to shake out some of the excessive bullishness surrounding equities.
T-Notes continued their collapse last week, but caught a relief rally on Friday. We should see some consolidation of these losses over the next few days to a couple weeks, but the trend overall in this market is very much down in the short-term. It will be interesting to see how long the Fed will allow rates to rise in this situation. It's really a test of how much control they have over the long-term end of the yield curve amid their QE program.
The dollar also saw some inflows and closed out well last week. It remains heavily-shorted and appears due for a mean-reversion at the least. At some point, foreign investors will be attracted into the higher-yields that the reserve currency of the world is starting to offer.
The commodity rally paused last week, and precious metal prices collapsed. Bitcoin and other cryptos also shed quite a bit of their gains, as they too appear poised to shake off some of the excessive bullishness in the sector.
A new Mercator Letter and Mercator Crypto report were just published yesterday.