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Weekly Memorandum 2/28/2022

Stocks were down big last week as reports poured in surrounding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, on Thursday, stocks hit a notable low and rallied strongly to close higher on the week. Given how sentiment has turned overwhelmingly bearish, we can't rule out that this was the low. However, it is still early, and further confirmation is needed from price.

Gold and silver did well last week too, but gave back most of their gains by the end of the week. Gold even rallied to its highest level since September 2020. Grain markets had big gains too. Both wheat and soybeans rallied to 10-year highs, before pulling back sharply into Friday. Crude Oil topped $100 for the first time since 2014. This is all a testament to the notion that inflationary pressures are still rising. The cause of this rise, whether war or supply chain issues, is insignificant from an asset management standpoint.

Cryptocurrencies didn't do much last week, as this sector continues to trade in a choppy manner overall. A new Mercator Crypto report will be published today, and we will feature a new coin, Terra, which substitutes BinanceCoin. The U.S. Dollar also continued its rise last week, much to the chagrin of permabears, who simply can't fathom how the world reserve currency, which is home to the deepest and most liquid capital market in the world, acts as a safe haven during periods of turmoil. This is what's especially peculiar about this commodity rally-- the dollar has been rising with them since May 2021.

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