Weekly Memorandum 11/9/2020
Equities exhibited a surge higher to start the week. This price action is in alignment with the expectations set forth in the most recent Mercator Letter. This rally comes off the back of supposed success in a covid vaccine trial, as reported this morning. Our analysis, however, came from the market's technicals, cyclical analysis, and macroeconomic analysis.
Interest rates also surged higher to start the week, which was articulated in our analysis as well. Rising rates have been the natural response to a declining dollar. Capital flows have been out and away from the United States since March, and the trend is showing no signs of waning just yet. The repercussions of this are rather large, and should translate over into the commodity market and inflationary data.
Bitcoin also rallied to its highest level since January 2018 last week, which is hardly a bearish characteristic. We remain constructive on the crypto asset class, and have shared our analysis inside the Mercator Crypto Report.
Lastly, there is the topic of the presidential election results. Multiple news outlets declared Joe Biden as the projected winner this past weekend. However, this does not legally mean the victory is secured just yet. If 2020 has taught us anything, it's to be open and mindful to new information as it arrives, and to be ready for unexpected twists and turns. The Year of the Harvest is set to begin its third-and-final act now. We are living history as it's being made.