Weekly Memorandum 11/22/2021
Stocks were split last week as the Nasdaq rallied to a new all-time high, while the Dow dropped to a multi-week low. This speaks to the continuing outperformance of growth and tech against other segments of the market. However, value and inflation sensitive segments of the market started off the week on a strong note, while tech is lagging behind. It's too early to tell whether this is a one-off day (one day does not constitute a trend) or the start of a reversal many have been anticipating. One thing is for sure: Betting against tech and growth has been a fool's errand for the past decade or so, and trends tend to last much longer than most expect.
T-Notes were slammed lower on Monday and have almost erased all of last week's gains in a single day. The dollar continues to benefit from the carry trade, and Crude Oil is catching a bid after a corrective decline. If Crude Oil can solidify a higher-low with respect to its trend, we should see new multi-year highs in the next couple months. Grain markets were strong last week and are bidding nicely to start the new week. Cryptocurrencies and precious metals continue to show weakness, in a continuation from the previous week.
Fed chair Powell was just re-nominated to the Federal Reserve, as the central bank continues to wind down its QE program and tighten monetary policy in response to economic stagflation.