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Weekly Memorandum 10/18/2021

Stocks saw additional upside follow through last week, which was imperative to maintain the integrity of the bull trend. Following this higher low from earlier in October, we now need to see a rally back to all-time highs, lest we form a lower-high, which could be the first step in the establishment of a downtrend. It's also noteworthy how the Nasdaq outperformed on a percentage basis, but the S&P and Dow look better on a technical basis. We still like small-cap value the most right now.

T-Note prices tumbled to their lowest level since January 2020, and have erased almost all of their gains from the covid-crash. Interest rates are rising in the face of the highest inflation data in over a decade. This rise in rates is being egged on by the impressive rally in Crude Oil, which just closed at its highest level since October 2014. Crude Oil is in a strong bull market now.

The dollar consolidated its gains near the highs, which is generally considered to be bullish price action. It continues to benefit from the carry-trade of simply offering higher interest rates than its foreign counterparts. Precious metals continue to behave in an uninteresting manner--seek better opportunities elsewhere.

Bitcoin just closed at its highest weekly level in history, which is nothing short of bullish. Ethereum looks just as good. Grain markets were mixed last week, while livestock did okay too.

A new Mercator Letter will be published this upcoming weekend.

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