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Weekly Memorandum 5/3/2021

Stocks were mostly flat last week, as we saw a general consolidation near all-time highs. The Nasdaq finally reached its first all-time high since February, which was important and thus avoided a potential sell signal. Futures are up slightly to start this week, although we have to consider further sideways action near current price levels.

T-Notes were down a bit last week, but rallied nicely on Friday to close well off the week's lows. We still anticipate a low of importance sometime this month or early-June in the bond market.

Commodities experienced nice rallies last week as well, including grains and energy markets. This continues to increase inflationary pressures, which pushes down bond prices. At this point, it's hard to argue against the existence of a bull market in this sector.

Cryptocurrencies had a decent week, but the biggest story is Ethereum's massive outperformance against Bitcoin. Note this is something that occurred before crypto made a high in late-2017/early-2018. This doesn't mean cryptos are due to top out quite yet. In fact, prices could very well rally into Q4 or early next year.

Gold and silver finished lower last week, and the U.S. Dollar caught a nice relief rally. If the dollar starts to pick up steam here, we could see the inflationary rally cool off a bit.

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